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The hardest games for any prognosticator to pick are rematches within an NFL season, because reading too much into the recent past can cramp our thinking for the present. No team that qualified for the current postseason was able to sweep all the opponents it played twice in the regular season.
Of course, in division games, home-field advantage plays a big role in creating those splits. All three rematches of this week are interconference clashes, however, with two being played in the same venue. The fourth matchup is between foes that used to play each other twice every season from 1996-2001.
Enough history -- it's time to solve the mystery of the first round of the NFL playoffs.
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GAME OF THE WEEK
Seattle at Green Bay. We went through all the storylines in the Week 5 version:
Mike Holmgren, Ray Rhodes and Matt Hasselbeck vs. the Pack, Ahman Green vs.
the 'Hawks, Holmgren vs. Brett Favre. That game promptly fizzled, as Favre and
Green led the hosts to a 35-13 romp.
Setting the tone for that result was an early Shaun Alexander fumble, and Darren Sharper intercepted Hasselbeck to put it on ice in the third quarter. Winning the turnover battle will be key in the rematch, as both teams' offenses can quickly turn short fields into points.
Hasselbeck and Alexander both performed well in San Francisco in Week 17, helping Seattle snap its six-game road losing streak and earn a playoff berth. Favre and Green have been on fire as Green Bay has gone undefeated since Thanksgiving.
Both teams have been surprisingly good against the run with a good mix of youngsters and veterans in their respective front sevens. That means Green and Alexander will find the running tough early, but both of them have the burst to break a long one.
This game will come down to which quarterback and his trio of wide receivers can connect consistently against the opposition's average secondary. Hasselbeck is more easily rattled under pressure, and Koren Robinson, Darrell Jackson and Bobby Engram all have had trouble holding on to the ball. Favre is confident as ever and has more reliable targets in Javon Walker, Donald Driver and Robert Ferguson.
The Pack were stunned at Lambeau Field in the wild-card round last year, but Hasselbeck's 'Hawks won't be as fortunate as Michael Vick's Falcons were. Packers 26, Seahawks 21.
TUNA OF THE WEEK
Dallas at Carolina. Whatever happens here, Bill Parcells still deserves coach
of the year honors. Getting the Cowboys to this point is an awesome accomplishment
and bodes well for a terrific near future once he starts bringing in more of
"his" players.
John Fox is a chip off the Parcells block, even though he comes from a different Giants lineage. The Panthers have the old-school formula for playoff success: a strong offensive line leading a powerful running game and a front four to dominate on the other side of the trenches.
Jake Delhomme and Stephen Davis both struggled when the teams met at Dallas in Week 12, but Carolina still managed to stay in the game for four quarters, losing 24-20. Since then, Davis has worn down a bit and Delhomme has become more confident in throwing the ball downfield.
It will be up to Parcells and defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer to make the necessary adjustments, as the Panthers are making better use of their speed with Steve Smith and DeShaun Foster. Veteran wideouts Muhsin Muhammad and Ricky Proehl also have made big plays of late.
Parcells will have his young team prepared and focused, but so will Fox. The Panthers' pass rushers will force Quincy Carter into some key mistakes, and Delhomme will respond with a good game as Davis sets everything up. Home field and the fans in Charlotte will make the rest of the difference on the scoreboard. Panthers 20, Cowboys 16.
SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK
Denver at Indianapolis. We just saw this two weeks ago, and it wasn't pretty
for the home team in the Broncos' 31-17 rout. Peyton Manning was only on the
field for 15 minutes as Denver dominated time of possession. To have a shot
at gaining revenge, Indy must turn the tables.
The bad news, however, is that the Broncos racked up 227 yards rushing with a backfield of Quentin Griffin and Mike Anderson in Week 16. This week, Clinton Portis is set to return to the lineup. To stop Hurricane Portis, in addition to being tougher and more disciplined vs. the run, the Colts must unleash Hurricane James.
In case you had forgotten how good he is, that's Edgerrin James. Last week, James exploded for his best game since tearing his ACL two years ago, rumbling for 171 yards and helping Indy rally to beat Houston and clinch the AFC South title. A heavy dose of James will help keep the Colts from overexposing their defense again.
The Broncos will be up to the challenge vs. the run, however, and Portis is capable of matching James blow for thunderous blow. Portis, much like Griffin, will thrive shifting and running away from defenders on the fast track of the RCA Dome.
Manning will remain without a playoff win, but it won't be his fault. The Broncos will get their first playoff win in 25 years without John Elway under center, which will prove the Jake Plummer project has worked. Broncos 27, Colts 24.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
Tennessee over Baltimore. One team that the Titans don't miss from the old AFC
Central is the Ravens, who have won five consecutive games in this series, including
a 2000 divisional playoff on the way to the Super Bowl 35 championship. Ray
Lewis always seemed to be everywhere in those wins, leaving Eddie George and
Steve McNair with few answers.
Much has changed for Tennessee, however, since the teams last met last season. McNair is enjoying the best season of his career, and Mike Heimerdinger's offense no longer is based on the power running of George. Instead, the Titans are comfortable with spreading the field with three- and four-receiver sets, often letting McNair sit back in the pocket and fire.
Spread formations are the best way to attack the Ravens' defense. First, it gets them out of their base 3-4, which excels at stopping the run with Lewis and Edgerton Hartwell inside. Second, it makes Baltimore bring in its nickel and dime backs.
Cornerback Chris McAlister has excelled in one-on-one coverage this season, shutting down top receivers such as the Bengals' Chad Johnson. You can bet McAlister often will draw the assignment of No. 1 Derrick Mason, but Justin McCareins and Drew Bennett also are capable of making big plays.
The Titans' biggest defensive concern -- surprise -- will be the newest member of the 2,000-yard rushing club, Jamal Lewis. Tennessee has been creative in stopping the run this year and will use five-man fronts often in this game and stay gritty for four quarters. Another key to slowing down Jamal Lewis will be getting a few deep shots from McNair early and making Anthony Wright throw often to keep up.
By George, the Titans would play right into the Ravens' hands again. But by air with McNair, the MVP's flair will allow them to advance. Titans 23, Ravens 19.
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