|
|
The run-oriented Panthers clawed their way to a division title on the strength of running back Stephen Davis, but they draw a most unfortunate opponent in the wild-card round. Dallas brings one of the NFL's most impenetrable run defenses to Carolina this Saturday, one that has permitted just seven rushing scores all season long. With the most obvious fantasy option likely to be limited, owners are left scrambling for options on these rosters, and the pickings are slim.
When the Cowboys have the ball: Dedicated Fantasy Football Weekly readers are extremely familiar with our weekly matchups—previews that project the fantasy outcomes of every NFL game. They typically begin with the team’s premier offensive weapons at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. Tight ends, kickers, and team defenses are often glossed over as we wrap things up at the bottom of the page. For this week’s wild-card matchup, we’re gonna flip you for real. We’re not starting with the usual, because after 17 weeks of fantasy football, hopefully we’ve taught you enough to recognize that you shouldn’t consider Quincy Carter (190 passing yards and less than one touchdown per road game), Troy Hambrick (three 100-yard games in 16 weeks), or Terry Glenn (zero touchdowns since week nine) against a stout Carolina defense. The Cowboys bring one of the worst offenses, both fantasy and otherwise, into the Super Bowl tourney, and they are likely to max out at two games (at best). Carter, Hambrick, Glenn, and Joey Galloway do not have nearly enough upside in this weekend’s contest at Carolina—where the home team allows only 19 points per game—to risk using them and losing them for the rest of the fantasy playoffs. Fantasy owners who need to fill their roster with someone from the Dallas roster should rather elect to go with either the Cowboys’ team defense or place kicker Billy Cundiff. The Dallas defensive unit has yielded only 16 points in its last three regular-season tilts while compiling eight sacks and forcing six turnovers—and it’s not as if Jake Delhomme and the Panthers offer up the most intimidating offense in the NFL’s postseason. If instead you’ve opted to select a team defense that you think will make a run for the Super Bowl, ponder Cundiff, who has made eight of nine field-goal attempts in the last four weeks. You can afford to lose a kicker early, and he’s bound to be involved in a low-scoring aff air this weekend. In addition, the Panthers are not exactly the strongest division winner in the NFL, so you might just luck into having him in round two as well. The only other potential consideration in deeper leagues would be all-purpose back Richie Anderson. With Hambrick struggling to produce in the ground game, Anderson has seen increased action in the base offense. Last week against the Saints, he totaled a season-high 109 all-purpose yards and scored the team’s lone touchdown of the day—not a bad fantasy day at all for a deep running back play. Surprisingly, Anderson leads the team in total touchdowns with six scores and in receptions with 69 catches this season. Most importantly, he’s proven to be the most likely Cowboy to score as he’s crossed the stripe four times in the last five games. We hate to beat a dead horse—is that what they mean by extras on the Seabiscuit DVD?—but it makes very little sense to chance it with any other Dallas position player. With the Cowboys likely to stick around as long as Charlie Sheen’s latest sitcom attempt—not to mention their specific matchup with the tight-fisted Panthers’ defense—there are many other options at each position with greater one-game upside. At quarterback, one would consider Seattle’s Matt Hasselbeck well ahead of Carter, who has thrown for only one score in fourt straight games. Jamal Lewis or Clinton Portis vs. Troy Hambrick’s 61 rushing yards per game? Gee, let me think. Darrell Jackson’s nine touchdowns or Terry Glenn’s five, three of which he caught in one game against the Lions. Tight end Jason Witten has turned heads as of late with 174 receiving yards in his past five games, but you’re other opening-weekend options include Shannon Sharpe, Todd Heap, and Bubba Franks. You’ve got the picture by now: don’t get cute with your Cowboys. In case we haven’t made ourselves completely crystal clear about that, picture Bill Parcells in a Speedo on Caro lina’s famed Outer Banks. There’s nothing cute about that.
When the Panthers have the ball: In the NFL playoffs, clichés are as commonplace as bad reality television, and the Panthers are no exception. As goes Stephen Davis, so go the Carolina Panthers. In their nine wins this season in which he played, Davis averaged 113 rushing yards; in their five losses, he managed to post just 86 per game. Clearly, the Panthers’ modus operandi will be to attempt to control the game with Davis on the ground, mix in a little Steve Smith, and let their very capable defense hold down the Cowboys. However, Dallas has made a habit of being extremely unaccommodating to opposing teams that are reliant on the run. Last week, the Saints were missing Joe Horn—he could not be reached for comment, out of area—and thus they sought to feature Deuce McAllister and the ground game. He carried 21 times, but the Cowboys held him down as well as anyone has all season, limiting him to only 49 yards on the ground. The Cowboys have offered up one of the league’s stingiest run defenses all season long, allowing just 89 yards per game. Fortunately, we also have a previous meeting between these two squads to help in forecasting this week’s fortunes. In week 12, the Cowboys hosted the Panthers and limited Davis to just 59 yards on 26 carries in a 24-20 Dallas win. This time around, the Panthers are at home (where Stephen averages 109 yards per game) and he does appears to be healthy (57 yards on 11 carries against the Giants last Sunday), but we’re still not optimistic about his chances to reach 100 yards or score against this stalwart defense. Davis has failed to reach the 100-yard mark in four of his last five complete games, and the Panthers have proven time and again to be one of the worst red-zone offenses in the entire league—yes, that includes the Lions, Giants, Cardinals, and Raiders. In addition, the Cowboys have allowed only seven rushing scores all season. With their ground game stunted, Carolina will be forced to throw with Jake Delhomme , who often has his target locked on wideout Steve Smith (88 catches, 1110 yards, seven touchdowns). In their previous meeting, Smith fought off a ferocious secondary to record 73 receiving yards. With Davis struggling to find running room, Smith is a serviceable play, as he’ll often face single coverage on the outside. On the other hand, do not be depending on Smith’s signal caller. We spent a good portion of the season’s second half pointing to Delhomme as a sleeper play at fantasy quarterback down the stretch, thanks to a finish that featured the Falcons, Cardinals, and Lions. In those three starts, he managed only a modest 216 passing yards per game while throwing four touchdowns and four interceptions. If he could barely hack it against those patsies, he should not be considered against a defense permitting only 164 passing yards per game, the stingiest allowance in the NFL. Accordingly, Delhomme registered only 175 yards and one score in Dallas in their previous meeting. Naturally, ignore any other options in the Carolina passing game. Mushin Muhammad has shown flashes but never emerged as a reliable fantasy option, and no Panthers’ tight end hauled in more than 17 tosses this season. Those looking for a Carolina fantasy play for an elimination game such as Fanball’s Playoff Fantasy Hold ‘Em should seriously consider kicker John Kasay or the Panthers’ defensive unit. Kasay seems to have solved his momentary accuracy lapse as he’s converted seven straight attempts in his last three games. Additionally, the team’s red-zone woes consistently provide Kasay with multiple opportunities. On the other side of the ball, the Panthers’ defense has been active as of late, scoring defensive or special teams’ return touchdowns on three occasions in the last three games. The Cowboys also provide one of the playoff’s least explosive, most mistake-prone offenses. Given Carolina’s scoring struggles, they may be one and done—and just like wi th the Cowboys above, you’re much better off losing your kicker or defense in the first round than you are losing a running back.
Back To Index Page