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The Cubs and the Red Sox are good. Barry Bonds, with great frequency, hits the ball really far. And this concludes the we-told-you-so portion of the program.
The rest of this space will be spent on delving into the things that you weren't expecting -- the 3-0 curveballs, if you will. And there have been plenty of them because the main story lines of April are just more chapters in the new book baseball started writing last October. A sport that for so long was known for its rigid imbalance and predictable results now passes around success and failure with great fluidity.
The Yankees, with their Rotisserie league roster, often have gotten barbecued. The Reds, who started Cory Lidle on opening day and are managed by someone named Dave Miley, have played pretty darn well. The Mariners, who won 65.6 percent of their first half games over the previous three seasons, now are winning about one out of every three. The Tigers had their first winning April in 11 years. Not only is it a brave new world, it's also the Braves' new world, what with no Maddux, no Sheffield, no Javy and, for now at least, no first place.
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You're waiting for all of this to be blamed on parity. But that excuse has become
too familiar, too common, too expected. And this is all about the unexpected.
Now, on with the rest of the show ...
He's the wonder kid ... again
Dontrelle Willis is on pace to ... go 20-0.
How, you might ask, could a strong start by the previous season's N.L. Rookie of the Year be a surprise?
Forget the impressive hardware and the mania that the Marlins' Willis created last year when he went 5-0 in June with a 1.04 ERA. Instead, consider this: In August, those numbers were 1-3 and 6.92; in playoff series against the Giants and the Cubs, Willis' ERA was 7.94 and 18.90; and in the World Series against the Yankees, he was banished to middle relief -- a role some thought might be the best long-term fit for the lefthander. Just like that, the next Vida Blue was devolving into the next Mike Remlinger.
"He got a little tired last year," Marlins pitching coach Wayne Rosenthal says of Willis, now 22. "It was the most innings he had ever thrown. He would not say he was tired. I don't think his arm was tired. But his body was tired. He lost a little command."
Willis' delivery, like Blue's, is characterized by a dramatic leg kick. It was something fans and the media grabbed onto; it was part of Willis' allure.
"It became a phenomenon," says Rosenthal. "Everyone expected him to do it. It got to the point by the end of the year where it might have taken him out of his delivery."
Rosenthal worked this spring with Willis on making his kick "less jerky" and taking a little of the "violence" out of it. Though that has taken away a little of Willis' power, it has improved his consistency.
"He's probably not as explosive as when he first came up," says one N.L. executive who has seen Willis this year. "I thought his stuff was better then. But his delivery is under control. It looks like he has better command."
That wicked stuff, though, was what made Willis so special last season. Now, instead of greatness, there is more talk of goodness. "I would say he's good, but not exceptional," says the executive.
But on a staff that features Josh Beckett, Brad Penny and Carl Pavano and should have A.J. Burnett back by midseason (at the latest), Willis doesn't have to be dominant -- though he looked that way while not allowing an earned run in his first 19 1/3 innings this season.
"He handled us pretty good," says catcher Mike Lieberthal, whose Phillies lost to Willis on April 20. "He just hides the ball so well that it's tough to pick it up, especially for lefties."
And don't forget the pick-me-up Willis provides on offense; he started the season 7-for-12 at the plate.
"It's not fair," says Lieberthal. "It's like they get to play with a DH."
TSN's bottom-line projection: Willis still will have rough outings -- such as the one last Friday in San Francisco -- largely because of his inexperience and complex mechanics. The fact he's slotted near the back of the Marlins' rotation shows how good this team could be.
Different strokes for the old masters
Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux are on pace to ... go 32-0 and 8-16, respectively.
After the Astros and the Cubs played the N.L. Central version of Yankees-Red Sox one-upmanship in the offseason by signing the two superstars, a lot of the talk surrounding the certain first-ballot Hall of Famers focused on the influence they would have on their fellow starters. You know, how Clemens' work ethic would rub off on Houston's Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller. And how Maddux would teach Chicago's Kerry Wood, Carlos Zambrano and Mark Prior the finer points of pitching.
So, how are Clemens and Maddux themselves faring on the mound? Clemens' switch to the National League couldn't be going any better. His stuff still is great, and he has handcuffed the N.L. by moving the ball in and out, up and down. In Clemens' first three starts, he allowed seven hits -- total. In his fourth, he won at Coors Field. Clemens appears energized. After a season of countdowns to 300 wins and 4,000 strikeouts, of farewell ceremonies and prolonged curtain calls, Clemens now can just pitch (even though each start still qualifies as an event).
Maddux's return to Wrigley Field has been less glorious. After his first three starts, his ERA was 8.62. And after walking 33 batters all of last season, he already has walked 12 in 2004. Seeing Maddux's pitches sail over the plate instead of dance on the black, or watching him walk Kris Benson when the Pirates pitcher was trying to sacrifice, has been odd.
TSN's bottom-line projection: Clemens won't be this good, and Maddux won't be this bad. Clemens is a fly-ball pitcher whose home park is, well, a joke; routine popups can go out in left. He also started strong last season with the Yankees (4-1 with a 2.70 ERA in March and April), but his ERA was 5.04 in May, 5.17 in July and 4.97 in August. Clemens still will be good, but he'll have some nights when he'll remember why he went on that retirement tour.
The turnaround to Maddux's season may have already occurred. In his fourth start, the Mets loaded the bases against him with no outs in the third inning and the Cubs leading, 2-1. Maddux then got Mike Piazza to hit into a 1-2-3 double play. Maddux didn't allow another run the rest of the game, and he followed that performance with a strong start against Arizona. He is a precision pitcher and needs more time to get into a rhythm than someone who relies on power. Remember, Maddux started horribly with the Braves last year, but he still extended his streak of seasons with 15 or more victories to 16. Until he doesn't win that many, that many should be expected.
The long ball isn't gone
Major leaguers are on pace to ... hit more home runs than last season.
This seemed a likely time for the home run to move off the top step of the dugout, the din of its prolonged curtain call finally fading.
There were many reasons to expect this: the supposed uptick in quality young pitching, the assembling of potentially dominant staffs (A's, Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, Marlins, etc.), the World Series champion Marlins' small-ball blueprint, the aging of Barry Bonds, the addition of a cavernous ballpark (San Diego's Petco Park), the para-'roid-noia spreading through clubhouses ...
"I would have thought (homers) would have decreased," says one American League executive, citing the steroid controversy as the No. 1 reason. "I would have thought some guys would have been a little leery, or would have gone into a down cycle or whatever they do."
Yet, compared with March and April of 2003, the ball is flying out at a slightly higher rate -- 1.07 homers per game, up from 1.04. Yankees catcher Jorge Posada had seven homers among his first 14 hits; Diamondbacks first baseman Richie Sexson, before injuring his shoulder, had nine among his first 20. The Cardinals are on pace to hit 270 homers but allow 209. The Rockies are on pace to smash 261 -- even though Preston Wilson and Larry Walker have been hurt -- but give up 247. Fittingly, when St. Louis and Colorado played April 16, they hit three home runs combined before the game's fourth out.
Stolen bases also are up from 0.49 to 0.55 per game, so every game doesn't resemble beer-league softball. But the majority of teams have been constructed -- and most players raised -- on the belief that it's best to mash your way to runs (the Expos, with 11 homers after 22 games, failed to get the blueprint). This is a homer-friendly game, for all of the reasons that have been offered in the past (small parks, mediocre pitching, lively balls, muscle-bound hitters). Pitching may be on the upswing, but it still hasn't caught up to the guys who get paid to swing.
TSN's bottom-line projection: Homers will continue to rise from here. Sure, some teams can't keep up their pace. But some of the game's biggest mashers haven't begun to mash.
Who's laughing now?
The Dodgers, Padres, Rangers, Tigers and Brewers are on pace to ... finish .500
-- or better.
These teams spent more time last year in late-night monologues than in pennant races. Though spring training projections smiled a little at these 2003 laughingstocks, the return on the futures market has come earlier than expected, as each team closed April with a winning record. Cheer up, Leno and Letterman, you still have the Mets.
TSN's bottom-line projections:
Dodgers. They should be a playoff team. OK, the Dodgers were above .500 last year, but this year they at least score enough runs to give their strong pitching a chance at making the team a contender. Dave Roberts is setting the table for a sound lineup that includes Milton Bradley, who was acquired late in spring training from the Indians; Shawn Green, who still hasn't gone on an offensive tear; Paul Lo Duca, who struck out twice in his first 80 at-bats and is hitting .400, and Juan Encarnacion, another new face.
"Being able to pick up Milton Bradley when they did was huge," says Padres closer Trevor Hoffman, whose team is 2-4 against Los Angeles this season. "The complexion of their offense is different. I don't look at them as a team that doesn't have offense."
The N.L. West lacks powerhouse teams, so the Dodgers have grander visions than just .500 and should realize them.
Padres. Rather quietly, G.M. Kevin Towers has put together a quality roster. Mark Loretta, Sean Burroughs and Phil Nevin (who's healthy -- for now, anyway) have led the offense, and rookie shortstop Khalil Greene has held up, so far. Jake Peavy has been outstanding in the rotation, and it's good to have Hoffman, who missed most of 2003, anchoring the bullpen.
San Diego also should benefit from playing in the N.L. West -- pencil in the club for second place -- and figures to get a boost when proven veterans Ryan Klesko, Brian Giles and David Wells hit their strides.
Rangers. No A-Rod has meant continued strong offensive production with none of the distractions. Not that the best player in the game isn't missed, but the Rangers are leading the majors in hitting -- by 24 points. Third baseman Hank Blalock, shortstop Michael Young, second baseman Alfonso Soriano and center fielder Laynce Nix have been among the best offensive players at their positions in the A.L.
Though the Rangers' bullpen has been effective, the rotation still is shaky and can't match up with the Angels' or A's starters. But Texas is moving in the right direction -- it has passed Seattle in the division hierarchy -- and should finish right at .500.
Tigers. The Tigers have added 46 points to their batting average, and they won more games in the first week than they did in the first month last season. Ivan Rodriguez has provided immediate legitimacy, on the field and in the clubhouse, and fellow newcomers Rondell White and Carlos Guillen have helped almost as much.
The pitching just isn't there for sustained success, but even if this team wins, say, 78 games, it will be the most improved club in baseball -- and a parade should be held in the Motor City.
Brewers. It wasn't easy dealing franchise player Richie Sexson, but as one major league executive says, "They have more guys in their lineup, their bench is better, and the staff's a little better."
Scott Podsednik is proving his strong rookie season was no fluke, and newcomers Lyle Overbay and Junior Spivey -- both acquired in the Sexson deal -- are helping support Geoff Jenkins. What's most impressive: this team's resolve, which was evident when Milwaukee beat Cincinnati last week after trailing, 9-0.
Ben Sheets is developing
into an ace, but the rest of the rotation is filled with questions. Of all the
surprise teams, the Brewers play in the toughest division, the N.L. Central,
and that's why they figure to slip the most by season's end.
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